Politics & News LC thread - Vivek and John Candy were right

I believe Karabakh backers are not fans of the current Armenian leadership, and I made the assumption that the coup-plotters want to fight harder against Azerbaijan because they’re from that region. But that could well be incorrect. I will poke around Nextdoor and see what my neighbors think about all this.

OK yeah I’m wrong, Armenia is pivoting toward the West

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https://x.com/GermanyDiplo/status/1836812764192321994?t=dlJsUV2CNtSJ3vbaO__1-g&s=19

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Bump.

non-paywall link

Yikes!

Make this make sense. Is this because people are going to bars to watch games more or drinking more during games?

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Honestly just sounds like people who do sports betting tend to not invest in retirement accounts. But I wouldn’t take stats like too terribly seriously they end up being really weak almost every time you poke at them.

I’m curious whether it’s $1 spent on betting makes a household put $2 less into investment accounts than that household used to, or than the average household.

Most states legalized sports betting right before or during the COVID pandemic. Definitely couldn’t have been anything else impacting these studies data…

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Maybe you’d have to read the papers to be sure but the impression I got is that individual states legalizing or not legalizing sports gambling sets up a natural comparison across states, not (only) across time.

Seems like sports betting should be pretty heavily regulated. There’s a lot of exploitative shit going on there in the marketing and how the games are run. There’s a lot of pro consumer things you could do to lower the loss rate as well as make it harder to shove it in people’s faces 24/7.

One of the big problems IMO is that every average dude thinks the stats they show on the broadcast are enough to win, or they give you the, “Team X has covered 10 straight games that kickoff at 1pm on the road when they’re an underdog of 1-3.5 points, and it’s not raining at kickoff with a temperature between 62 and 78 degrees Fahrenheit,” and they think that means something.

The sad thing is sports betting in the US was literally an ATM for the first couple years for anyone smart enough to take advantage of it.

There were just enough punters that the sportsbooks could flat out give away thousands in free cash to anyone smart enough to pick it up and not care.

Letting them instantly ban anyone with a clue is bullshit.

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Yeah this, for real, is pure bullshit.

I forget exactly, but I think over the course of 12-18 months I got 'em for around $20K. I probably put 100 hours into it and squeezed every drop of EV out of them, which I enjoyed, but I probably could have gotten them for 90% of it in ~5-10 hours of work.

Once they capped my bets at $5 and took away all the +EV promos I stopped wagering. One of them is trying to give me a host and VIP stuff, which I should probably respond to at some point in case they’re dumb enough to give me one more highly +EV pull. He literally asked me via e-mail what it would take to get my action back.

Made me consider shorting their stock, because when they’re going this hard to bring a sharp back, they can’t be doing well.

Yep, all of mine came from just taking advantage of promos and boosts to create risk free arbs for myself by cross betting through different books. Still made five figures. Literally never actually risked losing $1.

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God I never did the sports betting but I really fucking miss the bonuswhoring online casino days in the early 2000’s. Talk about risk free money. Playing pontoon with huge match bonuses was so much fun.

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Losing investable money “chasing it” I would assume.

Yeah I took risk but it was very +EV, I think I had ~10 bets that were +EV and I had to win 1-2 of the smaller ones to break even. Ended up binking a big one on the third one, then ran below EV and only one one more and hit pretty close to my EV there. Then grinded out hundreds of $10-100 bets with like 10% to 50% expected roi. Ran a little below EV there but still made money.