Stocks Thread (A/K/A STONKS THREAD)

[goofy]

There was a New York Magazine profile of Sam a couple months ago that spent a lot of time on his sister:

Sam Altman Is the Oppenheimer of Our Age

In May 2020, she relocated to the Big Island of Hawaii. One day, shortly after she’d moved to a farm to do a live-work trade, she got an email from Sam asking for her address. He wanted to send her a memorial diamond he’d made out of some of their father’s ashes. “Picturing him sending a diamond of my dad’s ashes to the mailbox where it’s one of those rural places where there are all these open boxes for all these farms … It was so heavy and sad and angering, but it was also so hilarious and so ridiculous. So disconnected-feeling. Just the lack of fucks given.” Their father never asked to be a diamond. Annie’s mental health was fragile. She worried about money for groceries. It was hard to interact with somebody for whom money meant everything but also so little. “Like, either you aren’t realizing or you are not caring about this whole situation here,” she said. By “whole situation,” she meant her life. “You’re willing to spend $5,000 — for each one — to make this thing that was your idea, not Dad’s, and you’re wanting to send that to me instead of sending me $300 so I can have food security. What?”

The two are now estranged. Sam offered to buy Annie a house. She doesn’t want to be controlled. For the past three years, she has supported herself doing sex work, “both in person and virtual,” she told me. She posts porn on OnlyFans. She posts on Instagram Stories about mutual aid, trying to connect people who have money to share with those who need financial help.

She and Altman are black-mirror opposites. Altman jokes about becoming the world’s first trillionaire, someone he knows socially told me. (Altman disputes this and asked me include this statement: “I do not want to be the world’s first trillionaire.”) He has dedicated himself to building software to replicate — and surpass — human intelligence through stolen data and daisy chains of GPUs.

Annie has moved more than 20 times in the past year. When she called me in mid-September, her housing was unstable yet again. She had $1,000 in her bank account.

Since 2020, she has been having flashbacks. She knows everybody takes the bits of their life and arranges them into narratives to make sense of their world.

As Annie tells her life story, Sam, their brothers, and her mother kept money her father left her from her.

As Annie tells her life story, she felt special and loved when, as a child, Sam read her bedtime stories. Now those memories feel like abuse.

The Altman family would like the world to know: “We love Annie and will continue our best efforts to support and protect her, as any family would.”

Annie is working on a one-woman show called the HumAnnie about how nobody really knows how to be a human. We’re all winging it.

[jmakin]

I could not possibly care less about the guy so never read. But this news is affecting far more of my life than it probably should

[jmakin]

I mean they’re very loosely affiliated with that site. there’s like a single moderator/admin. I don’t really have any moderation complaints and the comments are fairly predictable, but the worst get flagged usually.

[riverman]

Jesus.

[jmakin]

it’s really bad lol

[grue]

What, really? They have/had some awful people posting there, just bog standard Bell Curve “ideas”. If they didn’t want to be associated with them they wouldn’t be.

[jmakin]

I don’t really post or read topics that aren’t extremely technical so I guess I don’t really see that kind of behavior. like anything political i’m not likely to read. but I still dont see why that’s YC’s problem, i think HN is a well run forum.

[d10]

@goofy

Altman disputes this and asked me include this statement: “I do not want to be the world’s first trillionaire.”

Please don’t put in the newspaper that I want to be the world’s first trillionaire.

[Jman220]

@Formula72

I dont think Tesla is priced irrational.

[jmakin]

lmfao they’re in two years straight of decline and the market still prices it like a hyper growth stock

[DUCY]

I have no idea what a Sam Altman is and that makes me happy

[Surf]

Feel like I remember reading an interview where this dude basically claimed his AI was going to make so much money it would essentially be the entire GDP of world going into his foundation and then they would (maybe) give everyone a UBI if they deemed that best way to help them

[riverman]

He’s a totally standard tech bro douche. If you look at the totality of Bay Area tech “innovation” in the last 20 years, substantially all of it has made the world a much worse place.

[Namath]

this seems like an ok practice that can never be abused

[Melkerson]

I know nothing is going to happen to him, but didn’t they eventually get around to passing a law that forbids doing this.

[Formula72]

@commonWealth

@Formula72

I dont think Tesla is priced irrational. Theyve got incredible govt support and a lot of room in autonomous tech - just that toyota is making advancements l.

I think TSLA can double their sales in autos and that’s about it. They’ve got about a 50% market share in EVs, which have about a 15% market share in cars. If EVs go to 100% (or close to it) which seems reasonable, and things settle the way they have for a while with the largest manufacturers having about a 15% market share, we’d see 50% of 15% go to 15% of 100%, so around 7% of all cars sold to around 15%.

Say they get a better multiple than most car manufacturers, give them 15x. Current TTM EPS $3.61, so call it $7.20 x 15 = $108 a share. Not sure what % of their current earnings are household batteries for solar, or how much that can grow, so I could be off here but I’m probably not wildly off.

So is the autonomous tech worth like $125 a share or whatever?

Tesla’s valuations aren’t where they’re at because of an ambitious forecast for an increase in auto sales and market share - and I would consider your #s to be encouraging in that area.

Analysts are kind of wrestling with what Dojo could potentially be worth and how it could scale outside of self driving cars and electric vehicles in general; or trying to decipher the results of that technology like Robotaxi and how that could lead to any potential acquisitions for delivery services and such in the future - especially when you got all the subsidy outlays from the govt you want.

It would be a colossal fuck up if the best analysts from the largest banks reach Tesla’s price targets and overvalued Tesla simply from crunching TTM and EPS from past performance for a “tech company”.

To answer the bolded, I have no idea what the autonomous tech is worth but it looks to certainly be worth quite a bit and that is what everyone is fighting to figure out.

…Also, I stated in my previous post that I wouldn’t want to hold tesla atm simply because competitors. mainly toyota, are making advancements on their own.

[Namath]

@jmakin

got fired for some mysterious reason too

“Lying to the board”

Looks like every CEO everywhere is subject to firing

[Namath]

I thought so but guess not

[pvn]

@Namath

Looks like every CEO everywhere is subject to firing

well in a normal corporation, yes

in a corporation with a dual-class shareholder structure, or one where the CEO has managed to get all his cousins installed on the board, no

[riverman]

These claims that it’s about disagreement over security or whatever seem like obvious horseshit