( truth (lol) | raw text )
RT: https://truthsocial.com/users/realDonaldTrump/statuses/110800466718904036
( truth (lol) | raw text )
Man, I really am coming around to the idea that this motherfucker is going to be re-elected:
I mean, he’s just polling better than he ever did in 2016 or 2020. I also think his trials get delayed out past the election, but even if he’s convicted, the people who are voting for Trump do not give one fuck, and will vote him into office from prison where he will promptly pardon himself.
of course he’s polling better than he did in 2016, at this point in that cycle there were literally 18 other GOP candidates and he wasn’t a former president
2020 early polling was so distorted by 1) no competitive primary and 2) covid that I don’t think you can really make inferences
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There were Biden and Trump horse race polls all throughout this time period during the 2020 cycle and Trump was always down by quite a bit.
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At this point, my best guess is we’re looking at a Trump win that is slightly larger than his EV victory in 2016 with all of those states plus states like NH, NV, maybe even VA in play.
Yeah I don’t care where the polls are this far out. They’ve been of mediocre predictive value for a while, and if I don’t trust something enough to bet on it when the betting markets are significantly out of line with it I refuse to consider it news.
You wanna feel anxious about something there’s plenty to feel anxious about. We’re drawing live to tons of horrifically dystopian shit without going out of our way to worry about Trump winning in 2024 in the middle of 2023.
If polls are super tight this time next year I’ll be getting pretty uncomfortable. From where I’m sitting though Trump is not in a good situation. His ass is hanging all the way out and he’s spent the last 7 years relentlessly grifting the GOP base.
For me to take him seriously he has to make it another year under this kind of pressure without the wheels coming off. Literally everyone in politics wants him dead at this point including the people who most loudly support him (every last one thinks of themselves as his heir apparent and they can’t wait for him to be out of the way).
What comes next isn’t going to be better, don’t worry. At this point I fully expect politics/economics/society/technology to all be enormously chaotic for the rest of our lives. We’re living in the late stage of the capitalist economic era that has been running pretty much in exponential growth mode since the 1400’s.
I’m not sold Trump doesn’t just die between now and the election. He has bad habits, is pretty old, and what’s he’s going to experience over the next year (multiple rounds of narcissistic collapse even if he wins) is legitimately very stressful.
There are just enough qualifiers in there to keep you out of SweetSummerChild territory. Barely.
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He ain’t gonna die, and he’s gonna be your president. Prepare to bend the knee.
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I think Biden assessment right now is probably
“Now this is a bunch of malarkey, I beat him once, I’ll beat him again”
And I’m inclined to think that is pretty accurate
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Nobody else in politics does “it seriously doesn’t matter yet chill” better than Biden. Fucker surprised the shit out of me in the primary that’s for sure.
Honestly the scenario I’m sweating is Trump isn’t the nominee somehow and we end up facing off against a decent candidate we have no oppo research on who ends up being the fascist antichrist leading to my dying under a authoritarian dictatorship.
Trump the man isn’t the problem. Trump the model will be following us around until we can get society into a semi healthy place… and that ain’t happening until we solve at least some of the glaring problems.