(video TRUTH)
( truth (lol) | raw text )
brutal
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Still got it. When it comes to bullying people he’s still #1.
If Trump wins the popular vote by 10 points, based on what happened when he lost the popular vote by 4 points, 14 point shift from ‘20 means that he wins the following Biden states:
- Arizona;
- Georgia;
- Nevada;
- Wisconsin;
- Michigan;
- Pennsylvania;
- Minnesota;
- New Hampshire;
- Maine (the entire state and the right-wing congessional district, but not the other one);
- New Mexico;
- Colorado;
- Virginia;
- Oregon;
And the following states are tied / too close to call:
- New Jersey;
- Washington;
- Illinois;
- Delaware (his home state);
Here’s the electoral map!
I didn’t flip Colorado, Oregon, or any of the other four. I think due to polarization it’s not just as simple as moving the state result X points relative to an X point shift in the national result. You might just see Trump run up even bigger margins in some bright red states to build out a polling lead like that.
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Maybe Biden can hold him to only 375 or so EV’s!
Oh good, Biden’s only down by 3 points, maybe he’ll carry New Jersey after all.
I don’t buy that poll as having any significant predictive value anyway. RFK is not getting 16%, especially not by peeling 9% off Biden and 7% off Trump.
Right now? Sure. He ran as a Dem at first, he’s a Kennedy so he must be liberal. That’s all most people know about him. Put him on a debate stage to spout his craziness, and that liberal support evaporates in a hurry. The only left wing votes he can pull are the anti-vaxx lefties, most of whom were already anti-vaxx before COVID and probably don’t vote in large numbers typically.
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Obviously I don’t want Biden to be the nominee. If it were up to me, I’d pick Whitmer or Shapiro. Then there are a bunch of good but not quite as awesome people I’d pick before begrudgingly accepting Newsom as shitty but way better than Biden.
That said, Trump 44 Biden 41 is not an awful poll in November 2023 when Trump is campaigning and attacking daily and Biden isn’t doing any of either. We can probably count on Biden doing 2-3 very popular things in 2024, just like he did in 2022.
PI has Dems at 54% to retain the White House, GOP at 46%. I think the fair price is probably closer to 60-40, which doesn’t make me feel all warm and fuzzy about this country and doesn’t make me feel calm about the risks of Trump regaining power… But I don’t think it’s fair to characterize Trump as a big favorite.
(And if we were running basically anyone other than Biden or Harris, I think the fair price would be 70-30 right now, would increase when Trump won the GOP nomination, and would steadily increase as election day approached because most of the GOP’s equity would be risk of bad things happening to our nominee - scandal, gaffe, Dems blamed for economic crash, etc.)
Donald Trump is not winning New Jersey or Illinois.
I’m pretty WAAF, but come on.
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A bunch? I’m wondering who you think they are.
Who else has all of:
- Has a high enough profile to not get laughed at that they are running for president
- Would be reasonably comfortable in thinking they could win the election
- Is actually good
- Is not 138 years old
I’m not coming up with many.
You guys are really underestimating how much Trump is currently helped by being invisible.
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