Yeah, and we despair they didn’t listen to us. Which happened first. Cover that, assholes.
Substantially all of them are going to vote for him, btw.
https://x.com/amyegardner/status/1726576030633324946?s=46&t=XGja5BtSraUljl_WWUrIUg
RFK Jr 21%
This cannot be a serious poll.
I find it hard to believe that all three of these are true:
Trump 48
Biden 41
Biden 45
DeSantis 42
Biden 42
Haley 41
I could maybe buy name recognition helping Trump relative to DeSantis and Haley, although I’d suspect that they would perform better than him by returning the never-Trump center-right votes to the GOP.
But how does Biden go from 41% against Trump to 42% against Haley and 45% against DeSantis. Everything we know says that Biden vs. Generic Republican should be a curb stomping in favor of the GOP, and Trump vs. Generic Democrat should be a curb stomping in favor of the Dems.
And we see it replicated with Kamala. She gets 40% vs Trump, 41% vs Haley, 43% vs DeSantis.
This would seem to indicate that among the entire voting public, Democrats do better against a Generic Republican than they do against Trump, and Joe Biden is better than a Generic Democrat.
Dear God, that’s terrifying. But I have a hard time taking it at face value.
I’d also point out that if that five-way poll w/ RFK, West, and Stein is accurate (doubtful), that’s probably a Trump 35+ state win.
It can be a serious poll and also not at all predictive this far out. Right now, RFK Jr has great name recognition but probably 95% of voters know next to nothing about him. There are probably a similar number of people mixing him up with former Congressman Joe Kennedy as there are who actually know about RFK Jr’s wackiness.
I mean, if you polled SPE and said we could pick between Trump, Biden, or a randomly selected Kennedy excluding RFK Jr, I think a randomly selected Kennedy would win in a landslide.
To most Americans, RFK Jr is probably a randomly selected Kennedy. So right now RFK Jr is getting the best of both worlds: great name recognition, low awareness about his politics. Eventually, people will learn that he’s a nutjob, and he should crater.
In fact, let’s play… Ignoring spoiler factors, because you’re just answering a poll a year out…
Who would you vote for in the 2024 presidential election?
- Joseph R. Biden
- Donald J. Trump
- A randomly selected Kennedy (But NOT RFK Jr.)
0
voters