Rfk and west aren’t going to pull shit on campuses
yeah this is some really weird handwringing
I know we have to keep the anguish train rolling for click$ but Trumps not getting re elected absent cheating.
He hit a 2 outer via Hillary being ultra unlikeable and no one thinking he’d win so he got tons of meme votes.
It’s not happening. Deplorables are amplified out of proportion from their actual numbers because duh, it’s rage porn for easily triggered libs.
The boomers desperately want the Gen Z turnout to be a fluke, but it isn’t. They fucked up and politically activated this group of young people ahead of schedule.
Gen Z is also absolutely crushing it on union organizing. They’re social media natives and innately very good at marketing from what I’ve seen. The content they produce virtually unlimited quantities of is very effective.
Such a weird thing to tack on to an otherwise good tweet.
These polls for Biden have been terrible. The economy sucks (and Biden is drawing attention to it as if it’s good). Any international crisis is a freeroll for Republicans.
Yeah Trump barely won in 2016, but he barely lost in 2020. He got 10+ million more votes the second time.
We’re a year away, but it’s not trending great for Biden. Trump might be the only Republican he can beat.
I think there are some interesting dynamics within the party now where Trump failing to get the nomination puts the base into rebellion, and maybe a lot of them boycott the election entirely instead of turning out for DeSantis/Haley/Youngkin. A Trump that loses the primary might even encourage that, claiming it was rigged against him!
I otherwise agree with the proposition that in a “normal” election (whatever that looks like now) Biden loses to a normal Republican, but elections are very much not normal now.
I agree with this, but it’s getting harder and harder to see Trump not getting the nomination.
Iowa caucus is in just 3 months.
Nikki Haley beats Biden by like 150 electoral votes.
The polling for Trump v Biden is weird right now. Polls, at least the one trumps post, repeatedly show biden down 5ish with 10-15% other. Fox had a poll the other day where they actually made it trump v biden and biden had a small lead. I’m just not buying that other will have over 2% this election combined. At least in states that are competitive.
Trump isn’t losing the nomination by will of the Republican voters, so of course if he does lose the nomination it will be perceived as cheating and have a huge effect on his base. And we know his ego cannot go quietly into the night, this is as certain as anything in this world. When would it be too late for him to declare a 3rd party bid?
Only way the Republican party gets out of that conundrum is if he dies and they coopt his story into some sort of martyrdom. Democrats might be fucked in that scenario.
I suppose he’s never going to actual jail, at least not before the election, but it would really help if he were incarcerated without social media.
LOL no. White boomers aren’t voting for a brown woman, even one with a convincing Southern drawl. They’re staying home for that one.
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If we could skip the primary and go straight to the election, Biden would lose to any candidate other than Trump and maybe Ramaswamy. Trump would lose to any Dem except maybe Biden. But we most likely get Biden vs Trump.
We also definitely get a primary process that may continue to splinter the GOP and help Biden. Haley can’t beat Biden because if she beats Trump he won’t accept it and he’ll tell his base to stay home.
If the election is about abortion, Dems win. If it’s about the economy, 
it’s going to be close.
The are also some huge wild cards, most have downside for Biden. But there’s a very real chance we have a long government shutdown that causes a recession because a GOP majority can’t empower a Speaker. Trump would own some of that because he’d cheer it on.
Agree completely with this entire post except for this part.
If it’s about the economy (to the extent that the 2008 election was), Democrats are looking at somewhere between a mild loss and absolute slaughter.
Thankfully, I don’t think it’s going to be all about the economy (the abortion stuff has really pissed off a lot of people), but every time “Bidenomics” is said, it’s negative EV.
We’re super polarized, so I don’t know that absolute slaughter is in play. I think the GOP ceiling is around 335-203 electoral votes, and even that is probably a stretch - and that’s probably like a Trump +1 or +2 national popular vote.
The Dem ceiling is probably 319-219 electoral votes, and that’s probably Biden +5 or +6.
I think this is a not absurd possibility. I would consider this a slaughter, especially considering this scenario means that Democrats are also losing about 8 senate seats.
Got to your 319 D number this way, and that might not honestly be the absolute ceiling. The variance is crazy high, especially this far out.
Yeah, that’s fair. But is Trump 49% Biden 47% a slaughter? That’s probably roughly the popular vote share on a 342-196 GOP win. It’s an EV slaughter, I guess. But that’s a race that’s going down to the wire, with the last batch of polls probably coming in a toss-up in national popular vote, and with SPE figuring out the result between 11pm and 3am on election night.
Yeah that’s how I did it. To go farther you have to bring in… I don’t even know. Iowa? The next state to tip wouldn’t be Florida, so I guess Iowa or South Carolina? Texas or Ohio seem like pipe dreams.
At the end of the day, this election is probably going to be decided by 500K-1M voters in Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Nevada, Arizona, and Georgia. To drill down farther, abortion is going to be key in the swing suburbs, and the union vote could be important - especially in Michigan but also maybe in Nevada.
But it’s also important to remember that in a highly polarized environment, it’s not necessarily about convincing swing voters, it’s about turning out your voters. The 500K-1M voters that decide it might all be between Biden/stay home/third party and Trump/stay home/third party. Whichever side turns theirs out and keeps them off the third party wins.
I don’t even know what the fuck to begin to make of this Emerson poll of Pennsylvania.
In the Senate race Casey leads McCormick 41-33 with 26% other.
In the Presidential race, Trump leads Biden 45-36 with 19% other.
Spencer Kimball, Executive Director of Emerson College Polling, explained the juxtaposition between Biden and Casey support with two groups of voters: “Biden leads Trump 44% to 39% among voters under 40, however those under 30 within this group break for Trump 45% to 39%. Conversely, Casey leads McCormick 46% to 22% among voters under 40, and leads 42% to 23% with voters under 30.”
“An additional group that splits their ticket include voters whose highest level of education is a high school degree or less: these voters break for Trump 53% to 27%, while Casey leads this group 36% to 33% over McCormick.”
I’m still skeptical of this young voters breaking for Trump thing, but the more it gets repeated, the more we have to consider it to be legit. I mean, Bidenomics sure as fuck aren’t working for people who don’t own homes. I could see backlash against the establishment again, from the standpoint of, “OK, we don’t like Trump, but if you’re going to trot the old man with the Bidenomics plan out there again, fuck you.”
I think I posted once before about a theory that incumbency isn’t actually as much of a strength as it would normally be in a highly polarized environment and in late stage capitalism in a decaying empire. A lot of people just know the situation sucks and isn’t fair and may just vote for the change candidate every time.
Yes, that would be a slaughter in my eyes.
- If this happens, Democrats lose 7 or 8 senate seats and probably around 40 in the house.
- The media will be all about “This election was a MANDATE”, even if the popular vote is only Trump +2.
I’ve resisted when people post that it is “the end of the country if X happens”, but a result like that would have me seriously questioning that opinion.
Digging into the crosstabs…
Among registered Dems Biden is getting only 69% of the vote, with 20% for Trump and 11.8% undecided. Among registered Republicans it’s 76% for Trump 8% for Biden, and 16% other. Independents break 44% Trump, 14% Biden, 42% other/undecided.
This is super weird for the result of the poll… Biden’s approve/disapprove, then vote share:
18-24 year old: +4.1%, Trump +10.3%
25-29 year old: -7.3%, tied
30-39 year old: -9.2%, Biden +18.2%
40-49 year old: -13%, Trump +6.3%
50-59 year old: -52%, Trump +34.2%
60-69 year old: -27.2%, Trump +18.2%
70+: -16%, Trump +3.8%
So somehow Biden is running ahead of his approval rating in every age group except 18-24 year olds, where people who somehow fucking approve of Biden are saying they’ll vote for Trump?
Digging deeper, there are 49 respondents in the 18-24 range for whether they approve of Biden and only 39 for who they’d vote for. So maybe there are 18-24 year olds who approve of Biden but aren’t planning on voting? That’d make a lot more sense. Whereas the ones who are pissed off and Trumpy are for sure voting?