I have several in the 8.67% range, and the vast majority of those are state not federal so the biden stuff does nothing to help there.
I respectfully think you may be a bit out of touch with the lived reality for a huge amlunt of people who don’t have six figure incomes and own homes. It’s fucking bleak out there for anyone trying to get by on a single income, or even two median incomes.
ETA: here’s the interest rate for 5 of my state loans to backup my above claim.
Im referring to federal loans, which are, by far, the largest source of student loans and the only one Biden has power over.
That isn’t a six figure income thing good god
Ah that makes sense.
I keep seeing these articles about 50% of whatever of recent inflation being related to corporate profits and presumably they always trying to maximize profits which makes it seem the main reason they would be able to profit from higher prices is people were more able to pay them than previously? So why would companies suddenly be able to be dramatically more profitable over a short timeline?
No offense meant here man but my degree’s in economics and I grew up poor and know a lot of poor people (I also spend my entire working life working in logistics which is roughly the same size as healthcare for much more reasonable reasons). I don’t care what some Wapo person, or really any of the defenders of the current econometrics, have to say about it.
There’s a reason there’s an ongoing revolt in economics. It’s because the entire discipline is intellectually bankrupt. That’s what happens when the core skill the discipline develops is manipulating data to tell the story you want it to tell and there’s enormous political/economic pressure to tell certain stories…
Again your lived experience is the lived experience of at minimum the top 10%. I don’t understand how someone could have been as dangerously wrong as you were as a young man and still be so self confident about stuff you haven’t studied extensively. And I KNOW you haven’t studied econ extensively because if you had you would know my problems with the way we have arranged our economic data are actually quite orthodox if you aren’t extremely old.
The reason Biden isn’t crowing about the economy is because he knows what you don’t. He knows that for the median person life has been getting harder not easier for ~40 years with a pretty sharp spike in the shittiness since COVID.
https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/us-consumer-sentiment-rises-solidly-january-2024-01-19/
Here’s an article to go with the graph above
I think the whole negative piece is grocery store price shock and mortgage rates. Eggs are back to normal. But a lot of little things like my breakfast bars went for 2.79 to 3.39 and will never come back down. People felt they could easily move houses when rates were 3%. Now to get that next step up is a big increase. A 20% more expensive house has a payment about double. Can’t even downsize cause the mortgage cost will go up.
Let’s see if a year of adjustment to a new normal can lock in the consumer sentiment rise.
More importantly the Infrastructure bill’s spend really hasn’t been seen at all by the larger economy. We’re starting to arrive at the point where the planning/corruption (not going to sanitize it by calling it bidding I’ve seen too much procurement) phase has been completed and the shovels start hitting dirt. That’s going to have large impacts in manufacturing/logistics/main street financials.
I’d be much more impressed if you could contradict how real wage gains have been focused in lower incomes instead of making this about me.
I think it’s just a lagging indicator, and half the country is being told things are awful. Vibes are bad, the economy is very much good. It takes a bit to realize this
I think this is correct. The more you talk about it the less people believe it.
right
the hardcore derpers will never shut up about gas being $7/gallon, let them keep bitching because normal people see how disconnected from reality they are
Have to think a lot of this sentiment is because millenials can’t buy houses, mostly due to high interest rates. If they step on that a lot this year which is the plan that goes away a bit. Add in legalizing it and I don’t think Joe’s in the worst possible shape here.
I also think there’s going to a MSM anti-trump blitz, mostly because the unwritten sentiment that I see is that there’s no way people in the media want to spend another 5 years talking about the guy.
strong disagree on that, trump is great for ratings
There’s a way to frame a message of things going well without sounding like this. Putting out ads with ‘wages up, inflation down, jobs up, stock market up’ is not exactly rocket science and should be done. We shouldn’t give in to our inner Eeyore and not even try to tout the good things happening.
They don’t own stocks, they got a 3% raise last year, and their dollar goes about half as far as it did in 2019 on housing and food which are their number one and number 3-4 expenses. Healthcare is also up but that’s so normalized at this point nobody even notices. I got a 10% rate increase on my health insurance this year and I didn’t even bother to shop lol.
The job creation stat doesn’t account for job quality. If you create 2 fast food jobs at 20 bucks an hour and cut a PM at Meta that makes 300k the net is +1 job. If it weren’t for onshoring manufacturing jobs the picture would be a LOT bleaker.
This whole situation is a great example of why econometrics are so important. You tend to succeed according to the metrics you have. The metrics we have were all designed to see the world from the perspective of the extremely privileged because the people who designed them were universally very very privileged.
Part time jobs are down, people feel more confident in the security of their job now than in the past decade plus.
I’m begging you to use actual data to make any argument instead of vibes.
I think the issue is overall numbers don’t really capture that for most voters there is one specific aspect of the “economy” that they are looking at and overshadows everything else.
So someone trying to be a first time homeowner or someone trying to find care for their demented parent or a parent trying to find childcare is likely going to be incredibly stressed about current economy whether or not that actual economy is good or bad. So it doesn’t seem a winning message to talk about it being awesome outside of just brief mentions of unemployment being low or whatever
If the vibes don’t match the data, then maybe the data is measuring the wrong things.
Again I’ll refer to that graphic I posted earlier. Of Millennials in swing states who voted for Biden, 80% rate the economy as less than good. I refuse to believe that all of this is related to Republicans owning the messaging.
Shit, we can do our own NYT diner style piece on one of these people right now:
Hey, Pennsylvania Millennial, how is the economy doing?
Well that’s not great, what are you seeing elsewhere in your circle?
I just can’t understand how Biden bragging about the economy right now is anything but monumentally insulting to the vast majority of voters who carried his ass to the White House, and who he will absolutely need later this year.
Yes, inflation has cooled off. Yes, unemployment is low. Congratulations, you’re like 2% of the way there to fixing the broken economy for young people. Now shut the fuck up and fix the rest.
After seeing a conman show is it’s actually all about vibes for the last 8 years I find it to be quite the caricature for egghead-land to again point to a chart like it’s meaningful and say vibes aren’t good enough gimme data.
I know better and my lizard brain still is mad I’m getting slaughtered on child care, food, and rent on a monthly basis. A down payment for a home is a hilarious joke.
I give zero fucks about real wages outpacing inflation, I got 3% and Doritos is up to 8.99 for a party bag. I would vote for Satan if he would re-index the DCFSA from $5000/yr to something that covered with more than 1/3 of my child care bill.
Vibes aren’t good enough for those in the top 10% for a variety of reasons. They are for me. There’s a lot more of me than you.
Speak to me.
