Zero chance there’s zero chance after all this “chatter” lately. Maybe still low but skipping the super bowl in an election year really?
I feel like I’m taking crazy pills.
Why wouldn’t the Democratic Party fracture into various factions and have a bunch of butthurt people at the end like every other primary?
The party absolutely would explode in the immediate aftermath but the election itself involves a lot more people than “the party”
If he dies post convention (let’s say mid October), then it’s still Biden on the ballot, but Kamala who gets sworn in if Biden wins, right?
Maybe but the chance of him dying between the convention and inauguration is very near zero and besides this is not related to the voluntary retirement scenario
Riverman also posted about the death scenario.
And if we’re talking about the death scenario, then his chance of dying between the convention and the election is a significant fraction of his death equity between today and Nov 5th. But I agree that the chance of death at any point between now and then is very, very low.
Kamala may have the best chance in the death scenario because she gets it in any death case after the convention and some percentage of the time in any death before. She may not be over 50% (i.e., she’s a underdog to the field), but I think she has the single highest chance of any individual. Maybe Newsom might have her, but there is no one else.
Yes, it would generate TONS of free media.
That depends. If he does it now, I think there’s still enough time to sort of have a primary. One could argue whether that’s optimal or not, and who might jump in. Once it’s too late for anyone to campaign for Super Tuesday it’s just chaos, you’ll have people jumping in to get a delegate lead and claim they should be the nominee for that reason, and others arguing it should just be brokered.
A week before the convention would make it kind of simple, but would also be viewed as total chaos for the Biden White House.
I agree, no chance.
If it’s a brokered convention with no campaigning, I think it’s a fairly obvious choice. You can’t have someone who isn’t polished, used to the spotlight, and already kind of out there as a possibility. You need someone who is clearly viewed by the electorate as experienced and capable. So it almost has to be Newsom, who, what a coincidence, they’ve been keeping on ice - he even debated DeSantis.
Other than that you could have Kamala, but that’s not going to happen. Then you go to people who ran in 2020. Bernie or Liz could maybe lay claim, but Bernie is older than Biden and Liz is almost as old as Trump and bombed out of the primary when she had the lead.
That leaves Pete, he could maybe battle Newsom for it. I don’t think the end result is either of them being butthurt, so much as in line for the next open primary as a front runner.
I don’t think Whitmer, Shapiro, Beshear, etc would jump in under those circumstances unless the road was cleared for them by party leadership. If there was an open primary now, maybe they do. But in the Biden drops out after Super Tuesday situation, I think the overwhelming likelihood is Newsom. Like 70% Newsom, 20% Pete, 10% other. And Pete only really has a chance if Biden tries to engineer it for him.
Hey, maybe that was the deal when he dropped out of the primary lol… Biden last minute drops out and plays kingmaker for Pete. Would be pretty hilarious if that’s what happens and it leaks that was the plan all along. Hilarious in a gross and corrupt way, to be sure.
I’m not a big Newsom guy, but under the circumstances, I’d take a Newsom-Whitmer ticket. Let her sure things up in Michigan, she’ll also play well in Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. Let him run circles around Trump and just look competent, under 60, energetic, and unindicted.
In particular, James Carville and David Axelrod out there commenting on it can be read as Clinton and Obama weighing in. Hard to imagine there haven’t been any discussions behind the scenes among Democratic power brokers about the mechanisms in place and how to handle this when you’ve got Clinton and Obama proxies commenting publicly.
I think we’re past the ballot deadline in most places, even for the party to sub someone in.
This a kinda interesting spot for Harris, if Biden wins she has to like her chances of something happening over course of 4 years but if he makes it through the 4 years seems her career is done.
also if they lose, her career is over (and she’ll be in jail forever)
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Newsom is a poor man’s Bill Clinton.
That would be fine. My concern is that he turns out to be John Edwards.
I’m sure there’s no skeletons in Newsom’s closet, and it would be a nice and easy path…
one thing I’ve thought about, if trump does win this year, it seems that every country in NATO that doesn’t have nukes (currently it’s US/UK/France?) is gonna be rushing to get them (they probably are already, but it will be more obvious). seems too dangerous to get caught without them in a world where the US aint gonna help you and NATO in general might disintegrate.
This seems bad.
Thats a logical consequence but nukes are very expensive, both acquisition and upkeep. Many countries can’t afford them. The political and popular will also not be there in every country.
In my opinion countries should get them even if Trump loses because the US will also be less than 4 years away from potentially electing a moron.
Like 40 percent of the US would probably vote for the US to join the Warsaw Pact at this point, so yeah, I’d say every European country should have nukes.
I’m not up on nuke treaties, could France just give Finland a couple nukes if they felt like it?
No