That’s SweetSummerChild territory
PredictIt:
Trump 49c
Biden 43c
Newsom 8c
RFK 5c
Kamala 4c
Polymarket:
Trump 54%
Biden 33%
Obama 3%
Newsom 3%
Kennedy 3%
Harris 2%
God, I wonder how high the RFK market got. I miss PI.
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Only 6c. There’s some interesting value on Polymarket right now IMO, which is why I started the Betting on Politics thread back up. No on Michelle Obama to be the nominee is free money that last I checked was beating the risk-free rate. Biden 79c to be the nominee and 33c to win both have value IMO. Waiting til after the SOTU to decide if I’m going to do anything on there. Don’t love having to cycle through crypto to get to it.
Cool.
I hope there isn’t some kind of minority population concentrated specifically in that state that’s pissed off at Biden right now.
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AZ darker than NC seems wrong. I’d definitely lighten NE-02 to light blue. Maybe VA too.
Such a small chance AZ swings back to Trump. I don’t care what the fuck polls say.
I really do think polls are fucking worthless this time around. The whole ballgame is who turns out and who doesn’t, so basically every poll is just a guess on that one determinative point.
Like, women have turned out in every post Dobbs election in droves. But the cousin fuckers show up when Daddy is on the ballot too. It’s impossible to predict which trend trumps the other.
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Also wonder how much of the Biden polling is a “protest” against Biden that comes home for election. Like saw some clip of someone saying they had just voted uncommitted but would of course vote Biden in the general election
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It’s really not that big
240,000. Biden won by less than 150,000 in 2020.
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This is a weird move:
Are they high on their own supply that Biden is really a demented doddering idiot? Because last I checked the Trump/Biden debates did not go well for Trump the last time. Also Trump is dominating right now, why risk it?
Debates are the best thing that could happen to Biden. What a fucking moron
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Yeah I think he believes the bullshit that Biden is a doddering old fool.
Georgia was one time fluke that isn’t going to happen again anytime soon. Kind of like Obama winning Indiana.
Based on Trump’s past debate performance, Biden should insist on moderators keeping tight control over microphones.
Candidate mics should be live only during the candidates allotted time. No talking over, no interrupting, no going over.
Trump would get annihilated under this format, against Biden or basically anybody else.
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I don’t think they moved the needle either way.
Nah, the debate where Trump had Covid absolutely moved the needle because he was just so fucking insane.
Were there some polls before & after that showed this?
Nah just let Trump talk as much as he wants. Your average normie has zero idea how insane he is