Yeah that’s an oversight on AZ, that should be light red. NE-02 I didn’t really think about, just assumed it was safe.
If a pollster called me, there’s a pretty good chance I’d say neither to Biden/Trump, but I’m going to vote for the old asshole with the memory problem, so I agree on this one.
Warnock won a special election there in '21 and the general election in '22, and Ossoff won the general/runoff in '20/'21.
So we’re not drawing dead, but I expect the voter suppression to be cranked up to a zillion this cycle and I don’t think we’ll overcome it.
There was a very small gap between that debate and when he had his covid diagnosis so it’s difficult to pinpoint the exact cause, but yeah, my recollection is that the polls shifted bigly in Biden’s direction right after that debate before settling back down a month or so later.
So the format I’d like to see is that each candidate gets like 60 seconds uninterrupted, during which the other mic is cut off. Then after that, a back and forth, and they’re allowed to ask each other questions.
If Trump starts rambling incoherently, Biden can sit back and let him, then make fun of him at some point. But Biden gets to make his initial points uninterrupted, and then he can strategically keep talking and let Trump look like an asshole cutting him off.
I’ve excluded the polls that crossed over between both periods, but they also show an increase likely from the part of the poll taken after the debate.
2020 debates for sure hurt Trump. He did well in 2016 when he could just bully Hillary but by 2020 he didn’t seem to have his edge, he ranted wildly and they had to cut off his mike, just looked awful. Plus, they played up expectations by spending all month telling us about how Sleepy Joe was going to bomb the debates.
Fine with it? It’s fucking spectacular. It is a safe red seat, and just him running is enough to once again draw attention to how fucking crazy and corrupt republicans are. And if he somehow managed to win the primary? The seat would be in play because even though it’s a safe red seat, it’s a safe red seat in NY.
So we’re basically into the general campaign now, should we do a separate Biden/Trump thread and then a catch-all for everything else? Or keep it all in one?
No Labels WILL be running a third party candidate, but it’s going to be a low profile candidate: Geoff Duncan, the former Republican LtGov of Georgia. Joe Lieberman told a host on Sirius, apparently.
