I don’t think this is close to being true.
lol America
I think this is usually true but with Trump already facing 91 indictments and crushing polling, what could possibly happen over the next year that would impact his numbers?
People dislike Biden and want to believe Trump’s bluster and I don’t think that’s going to change, especially with the Republican controlled House seemingly dead set on tanking the economy to make Biden look bad.
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People are extremely short term oriented and the average voter is barely following the news right now. We are weirdos for even thinking about this in November 2023. Those polls are only being run because their results are good click bait that enables analysis of the ‘if there was an election tomorrow blah blah’. There isn’t so it doesn’t matter.
This feels like the sixtieth time the Israeli’s have done this shit. They call it ‘mowing the lawn’ for fucks sake. Walk me through how those events caused huge shifts in US politics. Oh yeah they didn’t. I believe it could matter if it was dominating the social media and news cycle <90 days from the election but even if it were still ongoing then people would have gone back to not caring, the news would be barely covering it, and it wouldn’t be doing well on social media engagement wise.
As for Biden himself as a politician I was a Biden hater for a long long time. I think he’s an archetypical go along to get along tumbleweed who thrived during one of the most corrupt eras of America politics. I think he basically got elected to the Senate as a young man with considerable support from Delaware banks, and I think he ably represented them during his time in the Senate. I was violently against him in the primary and was only happy to vote for him because I got to vote against Trump.
That being said this dude has pulled a rabbit out of his hat like 3 times in a row. He looked like he was in deep shit at this stage of the primary, and there were healthy chunks of 2021 where we were all bracing ourselves to get blown out in 2022. He seems to believe that you should deliver your wins as close to election day as possible. Don’t be surprised when shovels mysteriously hit earth in April-May 2024 on a fuckton of infrastructure and that boosts the fuck out of the economy through election day.
So yeah I’m not sure how this is all going to go, but I’m not worried that Biden is incompetent at politics. He’s pretty obviously better at it than we are.
Counterpoint: this poll backs up the “Biden is losing support among young voters,” trend that we had been hoping was a few outliers. And I can tell you why he’s losing support among young voters: because the economy motherfucking sucks for young voters. There are two types of people in this country, those who own homes and those who don’t, and the ones who don’t? We’re getting our teeth kicked in right now.
The issue isn’t with Democrats, it’s specifically with Biden, because the jackass is out there telling everyone the economy is great…
A generic Dem beats Trump by 8, a 13 point swing from Joe Biden and a five point improvement on polling in 2020. But we’re gonna get “Nothing will fundamentally change,” Biden because the powers that be prefer Trump to someone helping the working class.
This isn’t about that IMO, it’s about the economy being brutal on young people who don’t own homes.
This is what all of our hopes are on. This and the idea of “not Biden” not feeling as good as the idea of “Trump again” when the time comes.
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The only thing I’d add is that while a generic Democrat won’t be 107 years old like Biden, specific candidates usually don’t inherit the advantage a generic candidate has against an unpopular opponent. I can’t think of a candidate from 2020 that I think would be doing much better than Biden right now. Klob? Warren? Mike Bloomberg?
I think maybe an Inslee type, or a Sherrod Brown type, comes close to realizing the generic advantage. I know Whitmer polls well in MI, Newsom is a bust I think.
I suspect every 2020 primary candidate except Bloomberg does better.
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I think almost any other conceivable Dem beats Trump. But +8 nationally? Maybe Whitmer, Shapiro, Warnock? But if someone replaces him on the ticket it’ll likely be Newsom, who probably eeks out a small win.
I think it could boil down to being this simple for Biden: push a narrative that the economy is strong and lose, make the race about abortion and fighting for non-union workers to get similar gains to the ones he supported the union towards and win.
Right now in terms of the economy he’s pissing in like 60% of the countries face and telling them it’s raining.
You really think Elizabeth Warren would not have a 55-60% disapproval in this political climate?
Oh, I misunderstood. You meant, if they had been elected president in ‘20 how would they do now?
I think Normie corporate republicans are finally figuring out a second trump term will be very bad for them but it’s too late to put the toothpaste back in the tube.
This will all happen because Mitch McConnell refused to nuke him on 1/7/21.
All of these polls are despite the abortion stuff. I can’t even imagine what they would be like if RvW didn’t get nuked.
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Sorry, I wrote that poorly, I kind of meant both things. I think if any of them had won in 20, then all of them would be at the mercy of economic/political conditions they could not fully control to provide the solutions their constituents require. But I also don’t think those candidates would outperform Biden by much if they were somehow in an open primary process right now. It would be hard to test, I don’t mean that they can’t poll better for a bit in a hypothetical matchup, but if they had been actually running for 3-4 months and people are taking them as real options, I think they’d be roughly in the same spot as Biden.
Or to put it another way, the 2020 candidates were kind of bad, they lost to Biden qed.
Why would a 2nd orange term be anything but great for normie corporate Republicans?
My BS detector is going off so hard on these swing state polls. Maybe I’m in denial, but I truly think there is a systematic problem and not ruling out directed manipulation.
I remember the time right before Super Tuesday in 2020 when Bernie was leading PredictIt in 49/50 states, and that was during the primary. +1 on “polls this far out are not useful”, and I would say the exact same thing if it was reversed and Biden was crushing.
Because it’s going to turn into Russia style mafia government.
Meh, if we’re looking for silver linings already, the orange era ends in 2028 if he wins in 24, there is no mechanism under the sun that he serves more than 2 terms. And unless you think the electorate is going to want Kendall Don jr., the 2028 field is going to be orange coattail riders, whoever the VP will be in 24, and perhaps a slightly more energized traditional R candidate like Haley redux. Ds will hopefully pick someone relatively young, relatively appealing to its broader coalition of voters, and depending on how bad 24-28 they should have strong chances without facing the incumbent.
This is not to say we are not all fucked, as the courts are gone for literally our entire lifetimes, but I think the singular narcissistic derangement will abate in 2-3 years when orange’s time is constitutionally over.