Middle Eastern Conflagration, Israel, Palestine, Lebanon, Iran

Israel exporting its trademark pinpoint accuracy to Lebanon now. Very cool!

non-paywall link

A Palestinian-American acquaintance of my wifeā€™s (who I didnā€™t know) died a few years ago, and when we went to her funeral, many people spoke about her dream of a free Palestine (also, not for nothing, she & her family who emigrated here are Christians, not Muslims; the struggle for Palestinian liberation is not only a religious one). Some of those people were Black Americans who talked about her allyship with them in Black Lives Matter and similar movements, and how clearly she connected the Black experience in America to the Palestinian experience for them, because thereā€™s not that much daylight between fighting racial inequality in the U.S. and fighting apartheid in Israel.

In that light, itā€™s not at all surprising that this topic resonated so much with Coates:

What matters to Coates is not what will happen to his career now ā€” to the script sales, invitations from the White House, his relationships with his former colleagues at The Atlantic and elsewhere. ā€œIā€™m not worried,ā€ he told me, shrugging his shoulders. ā€œI have to do what I have to do. Iā€™m sad, but I was so enraged. If I went over there and saw what I saw and didnā€™t write it, I am fucking worthless.ā€

Article is a long read about what heā€™s been up to for the last several years and how it ended up as his new book, The Message, which comes out next week:

The Message ā€” a return to nonfiction after years of writing comics, screenplays, and a novel ā€” begins with an epigraph from Orwell: ā€œIn a peaceful age I might have written ornate or merely descriptive books, and might have remained almost unaware of my political loyalties. As it is I have been forced into becoming a sort of pamphleteer.ā€ Our own age of strife takes Coates to three places: Dakar, Senegal, where he makes a pilgrimage to GorĆ©e Island and the Door of No Return; Chapin, South Carolina, where a teacher has been pressured to stop teaching Between the World and Me because it made some students feel ā€œashamed to be Caucasianā€; and the West Bank and East Jerusalem. It is in the last of these long, interconnected essays that Coates aims for the sort of paradigm shift that first earned him renown when he published ā€œThe Case for Reparationsā€ in The Atlantic in 2014, in which he staked a claim for what is owed the American descendants of enslaved Africans. This time, he lays forth the case that the Israeli occupation is a moral crime, one that has been all but covered up by the West. He writes, ā€œI donā€™t think I ever, in my life, felt the glare of racism burn stranger and more intense than in Israel.ā€

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NYT gift link: Israeli Bulldozers Flatten Mile After Mile in the West Bank

The point is to eventually exterminate all palestinians living on Isreali (in their mind) soil.

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this really is so underreported

I listened to a self-described ā€œmoderateā€ podcast yesterday that spent one hour on this situation, two ā€œmoderateā€ hosts (one of whom literally self-described as a zionist in the episode) and a ā€œmiddle east expertā€ (who, it was revealed over the course of the episode, has a shitton of personal bias) and the west bank, the word ā€œsettlementsā€ etc were mentioned a grand total of zero times. Complete propaganda

Everyone knows you canā€™t get to the good stuff underneath without blowing up the buildings on top (and the people inside them) first:

Very cool!

The world is basically a tootsie pop with civilians on the outside and Hezbollah and Hamas on the inside.

Guess itā€™s time to update this thread titleā€¦

Serious chance that weā€™re going to see WW3 now?

Geopolitically, Iran jumping into the fray here probably forces the US to back Israel regardless of how much genocide they do. Putin wonā€™t like that, hopefully his hands are too full.

Iran is giving Trump a major opening to exploit and if he wins, aide to Ukraine is done and Putin may look to push farther, opening up more fronts.

All that instability at least increases the odds Xi invades Taiwan.

The US isnā€™t sending troops to fight Iran, weā€™ll keep arming Israel like always and they can defend themselves.

Yeah I donā€™t mean sending troops, I mean backing them up with no holds barred support instead of trying to reign them in.

Once Trump gets in heā€™ll clean it up with a few nuke strikes.

Tough to see how you get a land war between Israel & Iran given the geography. Too many countries in between. Iā€™d guess Israel lobs a bunch of missiles back? Although theyā€™d have to violate airspace to do so.

Thatā€™s the normal state of the USA-Israel relationship, though, and a normal way for proxy wars to work.

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Itā€™ll be missiles/drones back and forth, and it probably increases the likelihood of a more substantial Israeli ground invasion into Lebanon and perhaps towards Iran-backed militias in Syria.

Israel has to violate a lot of friendly/allied airspace to do it though. Like, Iran DGAF if they piss of Jordan, but Iā€™m pretty sure Israel does.

I just donā€™t see Netanyahu not responding to this with what is at a minimum a proportional response, more likely an escalation.

CNN is discussing the possibility that Israel will target Iranā€™s nuclear facilities and try to wipe them out, if not, perhaps their oil facilities in the Persian Gulf.

If Iā€™m Biden, Iā€™m pitching a next step where the US hits Iran symbolically but with enough advance warning that Iran suffers no casualties. Take out a couple airbases where this strike was launched from. In exchange, Israel agrees to stand down against Iran on this round, and we warn Iran that next time weā€™ll let Israel hit back for real and the US will have their back. The US would also have to give Netanyahu some red lines, and enforce them by cutting off support when they cross them.

Itā€™s a clusterfuck, and it seems like a US non-escalation escalation may be the only path to prevent actual escalation.