I feel like the level of discourse ITT is pretty fucking uneven when it comes to discussing who’s likely to win in 2024. Like every post arguing for Biden has 3 paragraphs explaining in with some nuance who’s more likely to turn out on Election day, what effects Trump’s reputation and indictments will have on his base coming out, etc. But then for the other side it seems like the standard post is pretty much “lol SSC u r dumb, Trump is totally gonna wafflecrush, WAAF”.
I know gloom and doom is our bread and butter, but let’s hear some analysis here, lol.
In fairness my last post itt was pretty much exactly “Trump is totally gonna wafflecrush, WAAF”, and my source was 100% my feelings, which are definitely delicate and hurt.
I think the Trump side of this is that he’s polling really well despite everyone in America knowing what they know about him. Like if X% of voters say they would vote for him today, despite being aware of all the heinous shit he did and the even more heinous shit he threatens to do if he gets back in office, then what’s going to be the catalyst to change that trend? Both Biden and Trump are known quantities and presumptive nominees which is rare early in the process, so polls at this time likely matter more than they ever did in past election cycles which involved a more open field for one party or another.
The article I linked to from Harry Enten was full of analysis. It’s pretty basic though, Trump is polling better now than he was at this point in 2016 and better than he ever did at any point in 2020. Trump won in 2016 and narrowly lost in 2020.
I have no data or analysis to back this up but feels like Clinton “peaked too soon” and somehow Biden has accounted for this and pulls through when matters more from a timing standpoint.
This makes me think I need to figure out what stonks going to benefit from him inevitably doing something policy related to cannabis prior to election. Although probably so obvious already is baked in
Trump’s numbers are up because normies aren’t seeing him at all and they have goldfish brain. The second he is front and center again his numbers will dip again. He absolutely could win but I think he’s an underdog.
I never liked the guy and everyone has figured out he’s a moron which I already knew, but also I always did whatever that moronic asshole wanted because I’m big smart.
-Donald Trump
Brought to you by the guy who hired all the best people and fired all the most incompetent deep state useless fucks.
